On the night of September 12, Bitcoin recovered above $116,000, but analysts are recording worrying signs of a potential trend change. According to CryptoQuant, an expert under the pseudonym Maartunn reported that most of the key bull cycle indicators have shifted into the “red zone.”
Indicator Signals
Out of ten components of the Bull Score Index, only two remain positive: “rising demand for Bitcoin” and a “technical signal.” The rest — including the MVRV-Z Score, profit/loss index, market cycle indicator, and stablecoin liquidity — point to cooling investor sentiment.
The last similar situation was observed in April, when Bitcoin’s price dropped to $75,000. By comparison, in July, when Bitcoin was trading at $122,800, eight out of ten indicators still showed a bullish outlook.
Macroeconomic Background
Macroeconomic factors are also playing a role. On September 11, the U.S. released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, which matched forecasts. However, unemployment benefit claims surprised markets, rising to 263,000 — the highest level since October 2021.
These figures reinforced market expectations of imminent Federal Reserve easing. Currently, 100% of investors are pricing in a 0.75% rate cut by year-end, according to analysts at The Kobeissi Letter.
What’s Next for the Market?
Bitcoin’s recovery above $116,000 was perceived by traders as a potential signal for further growth.
- Investor Jelle noted: “Inflation is under control, the market is ready to move upward.”
- Trader BitBull emphasized that breaking through the $113,500 level opened the door to testing historical highs.
Still, some experts warn of possible liquidity traps. Analyst Skew cautioned about a “liquidation trap,” where a sudden flush of long positions could be triggered. He pointed out that about 2,000 BTC of liquidity is clustered below the current price level.
Crypto investor Ted Pillows drew a historical parallel, recalling Bitcoin’s past reaction to CPI releases: initial growth followed by a drop to local lows. He suggested that “a similar scenario may unfold this time as well.”
Current Situation
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $115,300, up 1% over the past 24 hours. Despite short-term optimism, analysts advise market participants to be prepared for a test of the current support level before moving toward potential new price records.
