A joint report from the Coinbase exchange and the Glassnode analytical platform reveals a global improvement in market sentiment. Despite a local cooling of interest in ETFs and increased activity from major players, fundamental indicators point toward market maturation and a shift in asset ownership structures.
A Fundamental Shift: Investors Bet on Growth
According to a survey of 100 institutional and private investors conducted by Coinbase, the market is currently in an accumulation phase:
- Value Assessment: Approximately 73% of respondents are convinced that Bitcoin’s current price is undervalued and does not reflect its true potential.
- Market Psychology: The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has officially moved out of the “Fear” stage and settled into “Optimism.”
- Ethereum Cleanup: A departure of speculators is being observed in the ETH market. The volume of coins held by short-term holders dropped by 38%, while long-term investors increased their positions by 1%.
Coinbase’s View: Analysts maintain a stance of “cautious optimism,” forecasting a recovery in the quotes of most digital assets throughout the current quarter.
Local Cooling: ETF Outflows
Despite long-term positive trends, recent data from SoSoValue (as of April 28) indicates a temporary decline in appetite for exchange-traded funds:
| Asset | Net Outflow (Total) | Leading Decliners | Outflow from Leader |
| Bitcoin ETF | $89.68M | IBIT (BlackRock) | $112.25M |
| Ethereum ETF | $21.8M | ETHA (BlackRock) | $13.17M |
These figures may suggest local profit-taking by major funds ahead of potential volatility.
Technical Analysis: Risk of Correction to $74,000
On-chain analyst Woominkyu warns of a possible drawdown. According to his assessment, several factors suggest the market is preparing to test the support zone between $74,000 and $75,000:
- Exchange Inflows: On April 27, 9,905 BTC flowed into trading platforms—the highest monthly inflow recorded.
- Whale Activity: The Exchange Whale Ratio reached 0.7. This means the top 10 largest transactions account for over 70% of all deposits. Large players are positioning liquidity for potential sales.
- Resistance: Bitcoin failed to consolidate above the $78,000 level, while total exchange reserves increased to 2.677M BTC.
If buyers fail to absorb this supply in the near future, the market is expected to undergo a correction.
The Key Driver: The MicroStrategy Factor
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan highlights a major support factor—the aggressive purchasing strategy of MicroStrategy.
- Scale: Over the last eight weeks, the firm has purchased $7.2 billion worth of BTC.
- Mechanics: These purchases are funded through the issuance of perpetual preferred stock (STRC) with an 11.5% dividend yield, backed by Bitcoin holdings valued at $63 billion.
- Potential: Currently, the company’s liabilities represent only 33% of its crypto assets. Hougan believes the company will continue to accumulate BTC until this ratio reaches 50%.
Summary
The market is in a tug-of-war: institutions and major strategists (like MicroStrategy) are forming a long-term “bullish” trend, while whale activity on exchanges and ETF outflows create risks of short-term downside. The critical test for Bitcoin’s resilience in the coming days will be the $74,000–$75,000 range.
