Mass Loss Realization
According to analysts from CryptoQuant, large investors who bought Bitcoin at around $110,800 have begun actively realizing their losses. Since the end of October, the price of Bitcoin has been trading below the average purchase price of this new cohort of whales, triggering a wave of selling.
The peak of loss realization occurred on November 7, when total losses reached $515.1 million, and from November 4 to 8, they exceeded $1 billion.
Earlier, experts also noted a surge in activity from long-term holders, moving significant amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges. However, despite the selling pressure, new buyers continue to hold their positions, which partially offsets the negative impact on the market.
The Threat of the “Death Cross”
After a brief recovery to around $107,300, Bitcoin again dropped to $105,000. Analysts from CoinDesk warn that the current decline has strengthened the risk of forming the so-called “death cross”, a bearish signal where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average.
To avoid this negative scenario, Bitcoin needs to break above $107,250 confidently.
Trader Sykodelic believes that within the next five days, the price will hit a local bottom. His analysis is based on patterns observed since 2017: every time the “death cross” occurred, Bitcoin experienced a minimum 45% rally from the local low. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could rise to $145,000.
Potential for Recovery
Despite short-term risks, some analysts are seeing signs of a new growth impulse. Expert CryptoQuant MorenoDV_ noted the appearance of a rare liquidity configuration, which in the past has preceded significant market moves.
The SSR index (the ratio of Bitcoin’s price to stablecoin volumes) has fallen to a historically low range — around 13, a level that coincided with local lows in 2021 and 2024.
On Binance, there is also a characteristic pattern: stablecoin reserves are growing, while Bitcoin reserves are decreasing. This trend has traditionally signaled accumulation by strong players and a potential market reversal.
Macroeconomic Support and Forecasts
According to analysts at Bitget, the combination of soft monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve and growing institutional interest provides a foundation for a new Bitcoin growth cycle.
Experts predict that the price will move within the range of $90,000–160,000 over the next six months, with a possible rally to $120,000–350,000 in the medium term.
“We remain positive on Bitcoin, despite short-term market fluctuations. Growing interest from traditional capital and inflows into crypto-ETFs are creating sustained demand, which has become a key driver for the entire sector,” — noted Bitget Research‘s chief analyst Ryan Li.
The expansion of stablecoin supply and net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs point to the market entering a more mature phase, where price movements are driven by fundamentals rather than speculation.
However, potential decisions by the Federal Reserve on the interest rate in December, along with the situation surrounding Stream Finance and a decline in the US stock market, could temporarily heighten volatility.
“Nevertheless, Bitcoin has already passed the major correction phase, and the potential for further declines remains limited,” — Li added.
Conclusion: The Market Awaits a Reversal
According to Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano, upcoming stimulus from President Donald Trump may serve as a catalyst for a new Bitcoin rally.
Despite recorded losses from the whales and the risks of the “death cross,” fundamental and macroeconomic signals suggest that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a new growth wave.
