Analysts note that Bitcoin’s dynamics remain under pressure. According to CryptoQuant, the decline in whale activity and the growing influence of retail investors create conditions for either sideways movement or a further correction.
The Role of Whales and Retail Investors
CryptoQuant analyst EgyHash points out that the average order size indicates the rising influence of retail trades. Although large investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin, the asset remains locked in a narrow range.
The key reason is a shift in the dynamics of the futures market, which is currently considered the main driver for Bitcoin. The CVD indicator over the past 90 days shows sellers’ dominance, confirming the prevailing bearish sentiment.
EgyHash emphasized that without whales returning to the market and boosting demand, Bitcoin risks continuing its sideways trend or facing further selling pressure.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $112,700, showing a 0.5% gain over the past day and 2.2% over the past week.
Options Market Sentiment
After recovering above $112,000, the market remains cautious. Investors doubt whether Bitcoin can consolidate and break through the $120,000 level.
The options market shows increased demand for protective strategies, pointing to a growing appetite for neutral-to-bearish positions. Many traders expect a correction below $108,000, though this could also reflect a reaction to last week’s volatility.
Investor restraint is partly explained by Bitcoin’s failure to match the record highs of gold and the S&P 500 index. Additional pressure comes from weak U.S. employment data, which reinforced expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Traders currently assign a 100% probability to a rate cut at the September 17 meeting.
Experts believe that a favorable decision by the Fed could trigger a crypto rally in the next quarter.
ETFs and Capital Flows
Another pressure point comes from outflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs. Last week, net inflows amounted to $368 million—significantly lower than July’s weekly figures, which consistently exceeded $1 billion.
At the same time, funds and companies have increased their accumulation of Ethereum, which has likely dampened investor sentiment toward Bitcoin.
On-Chain Metrics and Investor Caution
Glassnode analysts highlight a recovery in the number of active Bitcoin addresses. However, transaction volumes and fees have declined, signaling weak overall enthusiasm.
Most investors are opting to secure modest profits and remain in a wait-and-see mode.
“The market is showing fragile stabilization above the short-term holder cost basis. While momentum and profitability have improved, this is offset by declining trading volumes and cautious positioning,” the experts concluded.
Analysts’ Forecasts
Analyst BitBull believes Bitcoin still has “one last powerful rally” left. According to him, the chart mirrors the 2023–2024 patterns that led to significant breakouts, with potential growth of 40–50% by year-end.
Crypto trader Hardy suggests the next target for Bitcoin is $116,000.
Meanwhile, MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe points to Bitcoin breaking its 20-day moving average. In his view, the cryptocurrency could follow gold, which continues setting new all-time highs.
