The recent surge of the leading cryptocurrency above the $73,000 mark sparked a wave of enthusiasm, but experts are urging caution. According to a fresh report from CryptoQuant, the current uptick is merely a “bearish bounce” rather than a full-scale market cycle shift.
Fundamental Indicators: The Trend Remains Bearish
Despite the local price record, technical indicators do not confirm the start of a new bull market. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, emphasizes that fundamental metrics still signal dominant bearish sentiment.
This perspective is shared by BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes. In his view, “digital gold” still maintains a strong correlation with the U.S. SaaS (software-as-a-service) tech sector. Until this link is broken, it is premature to speak of BTC’s independent strength. Hayes believes the market remains in a risk zone and advises investors to avoid FOMO (fear of missing out).
What is Supporting the Price Now?
The current strengthening of the asset is driven less by aggressive buying and more by a reduction in selling pressure:
- Demand Balance: The spot market deficit has narrowed significantly — from -136,000 BTC to -25,000 BTC.
- The American Factor: For the first time since last October, the Coinbase premium turned positive, indicating a resurgence of interest from U.S. investors.
- Holder Psychology: Traders have reached levels of unrealized losses comparable to July 2022. In such conditions, selling typically dries up, as few are willing to “sell the bottom.” Long-term investors have also sharply scaled back activity: sell volume dropped from 904,000 BTC to 276,000 BTC.
The Role of Institutionals and Geopolitics
The spot ETF sector is showing signs of recovery. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas recorded a daily inflow of $500 million, which almost entirely offset the total net outflows seen since the beginning of the year.
A curious fact: Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin rose by 12%, while gold conversely showed a decline.
Nevertheless, Balchunas warns against prematurely labeling BTC the sole “safe-haven asset.” Short-term movements may be driven by erratic sentiment shifts and profit-taking rather than a long-term geopolitical strategy.
Forecast: Resistance Levels and General Weakness
Despite the local positivity, the Bitcoin Bull Score index remains at an extremely low level — 10 out of 100. This is a critical indicator pointing to the overall weakness of the market structure.
Key Levels to Watch: If the rally continues, Bitcoin will face heavy resistance at:
- $79,000
- $90,000
These levels align with the “traders’ realized price” — psychological zones where market participants are likely to close positions en masse, as seen previously in mid-January.
Current Situation: At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $70,620, having corrected by 2.7% over the last 24 hours.
