Over the past 30 days, crypto exchange Binance has recorded an inflow of nearly $9 billion in stablecoins. This level is now close to historical highs that have previously preceded powerful moves in the crypto market. The trend was highlighted by an analyst under the nickname CryptoOnchain.
Growing Stablecoin Reserves: A Signal of Buying Readiness
According to the analyst, the amount of ERC-20 stablecoins on Binance has reached key levels. In practice, this means the exchange has accumulated a large amount of “dry powder” — liquidity waiting for the right moment to enter the market.
Such inflows are usually interpreted as a sign of strong potential buying interest:
investors move funds to the exchange not just for storage, but to be ready to open positions quickly once they see a favorable entry point.
Historically, periods of sharp growth in stablecoin reserves have often coincided with phases of heightened volatility and the start of new bullish trends. The capital sitting “on standby” can rapidly change market dynamics in favor of the bulls, CryptoOnchain notes.
Selling Pressure: Futures Point to Bearish Sentiment
At the same time, sentiment in the derivatives market remains more cautious. An expert from CryptoQuant, known as abramchart, drew attention to the fact that the bitcoin futures basis has turned negative.
When futures contracts trade below the spot price, it usually indicates:
- weak demand for leverage,
- prevailing caution among traders,
- a desire to reduce risk or close long positions.
According to the analyst, bitcoin is now trading in a so-called “basis zone” — a period typically accompanied by selling pressure and a reduction in open positions.
Short-term bearish sentiment is also confirmed by the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, both of which are sloping downward, signaling ongoing local pressure on the price.
When Market Confidence Might Return
Abramchart notes that traders are already pricing in lower risk and acting conservatively. The first clear sign of recovering confidence, in his view, would be the futures basis returning to positive territory — even just into the 0–0.5% range.
Such a move would usually indicate that market participants are once again willing to pay a premium for futures, meaning they expect the underlying asset’s price to rise.
Bernstein’s View: The Drop Is Short-Term, Not a Major Downtrend
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, it’s worth recalling the position of analysts at investment firm Bernstein, voiced in November. Researchers there stated that the decline in the price of “digital gold” is short-term in nature and does not mark the beginning of a large-scale downtrend.
In other words, despite local selling pressure and caution in the futures market, a full reversal of the broader bullish phase does not yet appear inevitable from a fundamental standpoint.
Bottom Line: Conflicting Signals, but Strong Upside Potential
Right now, the market is sending mixed signals:
- Stablecoins on Binance: A sharp increase in reserves to $9 billion suggests capital is ready to enter the market quickly.
- Futures and basis: Negative basis and downward-sloping moving averages point to short-term cautious or bearish sentiment.
- Macro view from analysts: Major research firms still see the current decline as temporary.
In this configuration, the market resembles a compressed spring: the money is already on the exchange, but a significant share of participants prefer to wait. Which way this tension will resolve largely depends on upcoming news, the macroeconomic backdrop, and how bitcoin behaves around key support and resistance levels.
