The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is flashing an increasing number of on-chain signals typical of historical cycle bottoms. However, experts at the analytical firm CryptoQuant warn that confirming the ultimate formation of a bottom is still premature.
The current accumulation phase is unfolding against a backdrop of severe pressure from macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and a correction in Bitcoin.
Ether Is Trading at a Deep Discount
According to CryptoQuant’s observations, Ethereum is currently trading approximately 17% below its realized price (the average acquisition cost of all circulating coins), which currently sits at around $2,300.
Since mid-May, the asset’s price has been range-bound between $1,500 and $2,000. Historically, periods where the price drops below the realized value point to deep undervaluation and proximity to a cycle bottom.
Realized Price — An on-chain metric reflecting the average price at which each ETH last moved on the blockchain. Trading below this level means the majority of holders are holding “paper” losses.
CryptoQuant’s 5 On-Chain Metrics: The Full Market Picture
To assess Ethereum’s readiness for a trend reversal, analysts examined five key on-chain indicators. Currently, only two of them have reached the extreme levels that accompanied previous market turnarounds:
- ETH/BTC Price-to-Realized Price Ratio.
- Comparative ETH vs. BTC Spot Trading Volumes. This metric dropped from 1.75 down to 0.5, signaling a significant flush-out of speculative interest—a classic hallmark of a forming bottom.
The remaining three metrics show positive momentum, but have not yet signaled a final market capitulation:
| Metric | Previous Peak / Baseline | Current Value | Historical Bottom | Status |
| ETH/BTC MVRV | 0.95 (August 2025) | 0.65 | ~0.45 | Decline ongoing; no capitulation yet |
| Exchange Inflow (ETH/BTC) | > 1.5 | 0.8 | ~0.4 | Selling pressure softened, but persists |
| ETH Share in Spot ETFs | 0.20 (August 2025) | 0.13 (up from 0.115) | — | Initial signs of institutional demand recovery |
Supply Squeeze: Record Staking and Exchange Outflows
Additional bullish signals are emerging on the supply side:
- Massive Exchange Withdrawals: In late June, ETH outflows from Binance surged to a more than three-year high. This suggests coins are moving into self-custody or being redirected toward staking rather than being prepared for sale.
- Record Staking Ratio: Approximately 34% of the total ETH supply is currently locked in staking contracts. This significantly reduces the circulating supply available on exchanges and dampens potential selling pressure.
Bitcoin Drops Below $65,000: Macroeconomics vs. Crypto Market
Negative sentiment across traditional financial markets continues to hamper a full-fledged crypto rally. Overnight on July 24, Bitcoin fell below $65,000—its lowest point in three days—despite trading above $67,000 earlier in the week.
The primary catalysts for the pullback were geopolitical flare-ups and inflation concerns:
- Geopolitics: Renewed escalation involving Iran and statements from U.S. President Donald Trump holding Tehran accountable for Houthi attacks on Saudi merchant ships pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel.
- Stock Market: The S&P 500 closed down 1.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 2.2%.
- Monetary Policy: U.S. Treasury yields rose. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 bps Fed rate hike at the upcoming July meeting jumped to nearly 40% (up from ~12% a week prior).
What Are Analysts Saying About BTC’s Next Move?
- Michaël van de Poppe: Highlights the $64,000 zone as immediate support. Securing a breakout above the $68,000 resistance level would open the path toward $73,000.
- Bitfinex: Confirms that the $68,000 mark remains the primary hurdle for bulls.
- Skeptics: Suggest that losing $65,000 signals an end to the July recovery rally, paving the way for further downside.
